エネルギー問題

Some of these days, you will miss me honey.
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  • 石油と天然ガス資源のピークに関する研究会のホームページ（月刊のNewsLetterがある）
    Top Page of ASPO

    “The First Half of the Age of Oil now closes. It lasted 150 years and saw the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade, agriculture and financial capital, allowing the population to expand six-fold. The financial capital was created by banks with confidence that Tomorrow’s Expansion, fuelled by oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for Today’s Debt.
    The Second Half of the Age of Oil now dawns, and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present Financial System, and related political structures, speaking of a Second Great Depression.”(cited from ASPO news letter No.53）
  • 頻繁に更新される原油生産のピークに関連したニュース・エッセイ
    EnergyBulletin.net of Energy and Peak Oil News
    Breaking News: Watch the Crash as it Unfolds of Life After the Oil Crash

  • 熱力学的生態学的諦観
    Resource Page of DIE OFF

  • 2030年には工業文明が歴史になっているかも!?
    Dr.Richard C.Duncan の Olduvai Theory

  • The economy will collapse due to oil decline in 2007 or 2008 !?
    Current Situation & 2005 Projections





    Reserve to Production Ratio will Never be 0 Theoretically.

    According to Dr. Hubbert, cumulative production (Q) of oil is represented by
    Q = Q0 / [1+exp{a (tm-t)}]
    where Q0 is total amount of oil reserve, tm is the midpoint of production i.e., the peak year, and t is time. Therefore, residual reserve (R) is
    R = Q0 - Q
    On the other hand, production (P) at t is
    P = dQ/dt = aQ0exp{a (tm-t)} / [1+exp{a (tm-t)}]2
    Thus,
    R/P = [1+exp{a (tm-t)}]/ a
    Above equation shows that R/P ratio is independent on the total amount of reserve, Q0.
    At the limit of infinity of t,
    R/P = 1/a = constant value
    In my opinion, without any knowledge of real Q0 value, R/P that does not increase significantly has already meant the decline.





    Application of the Hubbert's Thinking Way #1 to Japanese Steel Production

    Needless to say, energy supply is the prerequisite for every changes i.e., production.(left figure) A kind of the power law relationship is seemed to hold between steel production and primary energy supply. (right figure)

    ->






    Application of Olduvai Theory to Japan

    If the primary energy supply to Japan was also assumed to be represented by the derivative of logistic curve like oil production, ie., PrimaryEnergySupply = aEmaxexp{a (tm-t)} / [1+exp{a (tm-t)}]2, below grey curve is fitted to the past actual data by the least square method.



    Based on the forecast of population in Japan and the above fitting curve, per capita energy will decrease as in below figure. Since significant improvement of energy efficiency can be no longer expected, we can't help changing our life style.